This is a copy of a paper that Ratnakar and I wrote a few weeks ago for IIM Bangalore. We liked it. IIM B did not, and did not consider it worthy. Partly because I ran out of interesting topics today, I have uploaded a copy of this paper. If you disagree with it…be my guest!
Executive Summary
This paper seeks to challenge the very assumptions upon which the international system for control of climate change operates upon. With the collapse of communism, capitalism has been left as the only viable economic system available. It is in the background of this fact that efforts by every country that seeks to address the issue of climate change have to be viewed. In this paper, we, the authors take a most unfashionable view. We make 2 sweeping statements that challenge this entire viewpoint.
1. Climate Change is far more complicated than mankind burning fossil fuels. While it would be foolish to deny evidence of a warming across the globe, it would be equally foolish to imagine that humanity can predict the consequences of climate change. Our estimates are at best guesses that may be right. At worst, we may be catastrophically wrong!
2. Predictions of doom have been upon us since the dawn of time. At no time have these so called prophets had anything other than the fear of the unknown to make us fear. While the doomsayers of the first millennium promised divine retribution, the post cold-war scientific second millennium portrays climate change as the bogey man that ill destroy us since the spectre of nuclear holocaust failed to materialise.
The authors do not seek to dispute neither the fact that the earth is warming, nor the reasons behind this global warming phenomenon. We accept the overwhelming evidence that it is largely due to human causes. Where we differ is in the consequences as well as our ability to alter the current situation. As long as Humanity progresses, the world is doomed to growing warmer. We base this gloomy prediction on the most basic of laws, The Second Law of Thermodynamics.
At the same time, we also say that the future is still bright. Disaster movies like “Day after Tomorrow” sensationalise the effects of climate change, and make reasoned debate almost impossible. Our stand is that the overwhelming history of humanity is one of progress. To deny that we will continue to progress is to deny our own history. For India, there are specific challenges which we will outline, but there is no doubt that in our mind that we cannot blindly follow emission targets that cripple growth. At the same time, to expect the developed world to fund our growth with their lowered emissions would only be naive.
Case 1: The case for alternative energy – Dwindling oil reserves
Today, crude oil prices are averaging at $75 a barrel, and even by discounting all external risks that affect the price of oil, analysts agree that the price of oil is here to stay above $50 a barrel. At these prices, previously unviable energy production methods become feasible. The production of ethanol from sugarcane is about Rs. 17 a litre, which is cheaper than the equivalent oil price on an energy equivalence scale.
Is Ethanol the answer?
So, is ethanol the answer to our worlds efficiency woes. The answer is unfortunately…no!
Efficiency of Ethanol
The efficiency of photosynthesis is a woeful 2%, which means that the entire arable farmland of the world would have to be devoted to sugarcane in order to meet the future energy needs of the world. In comparison, commercial solar cells have an efficiency of 12%. Therefore, a solar field would be more efficient than a sugarcane field (though far more expensive to set up).
Pollution and Carbon Neutrality
Sugarcane is also an extremely polluting crop in itself. It requires fresh water, which is a limited resource, as well as a 180 day crop cycle as compared to a 90 day cycle for rice or wheat. In addition, the fertilizers used for growing sugarcane are also made from fossil fuels, and while the net energy gain is positive, it is by no means sufficient or non-polluting
Nuclear Fuel: The Holy grail?
Nuclear Fission plants are a controversial solution. Environmentalists love to hate fission plants: firstly for their extremely hazardous waste products, which do not degrade over time (measurably), and secondly for the safety that has to be maintained at all times. Chernobyl is pointed out as an example of what happens when things go wrong.
Limited Fuel: A bigger Problem
Of course, the real problem is that in the long term, fission plants are limited by the amount of Uranium and Plutonium that can be mined. The total quantity is not expected to last longer than 100-150 years, even at current energy consumption levels, and hence would be a short term solution
Nuclear Fusion: The way ahead?
Now we come to the most ambitious and yet promising project so far. ITER (International Thermonuclear Energy Researchers) is an organization formed out of the leading countries of the world, dedicated to solve the technical challenges towards producing nuclear power from fusion reactions.
The Advantages:
The advantages are incredible. Firstly, the fuel would be hydrogen, the most plentiful element in the universe. Secondly, there would be no problem of radioactive by products, and there would also be no danger in case of meltdown, as in the case of a nuclear fission plant. The method would be completely clean.
The Pitfalls:
The technical problems in creating fusion power are significant. Even the most optimistic projections says that it would take 20 years to develop a commercial reactor that produces enough power for a modern city.
Our Choice:
In spite of the uncertainty around Nuclear Power, we favour the use of Nuclear Fusion power as the energy source of the future. This will take many years, in which we must fund our appetite for energy from fossil fuels.
Global Warming is Inevitable –Second Law Speaks
The real problem is the impossibility of prevention. The second law of thermodynamics states that for performing any useful work, some heat has to be rejected to the environment. This is an immutable law, and ensures that whatever we do…however efficient we may be, we cannot break the shackles of the second law of thermodynamics. The only way to reduce the heat we reject is to do less work…burn less fossil fuels…and lower our standard of living. While one or two people in a hundred might accept this, a vast majority would never look to go back to the era of hand to mouth existence that was seen before scientific progress.
What we say is this…in the long term, the costs of development will be seen in global warming (assuming all other things remain equal). Humanity has to adapt and change to it, as it has done so in the past.
Handling Global Warming: Cases
There is little doubt that Global warming will cause widespread changes in the way the world works. Let us take a fictional case of a farmer in north India. Let us follow him through the years of global warming.
Case 1:
For generations, monjural asharaful’s family has lived farming near the town of Faridpur, a small town on the banks of the river Padma, where it meets the sea in Bangladesh. But of late the sea has become more of a monster and has already digested much of his arable land… the water levels only seem to be increasing… Upstream on the great river system of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Padma, Musad Dilal, is a small time farmer near the town of Mirzapur on the banks of Ganges in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. he is completely dependent on the south west monsoon for his yield. The monsoon system which has visited India for millenia have o late started behaving erratically. Moreover, when the monsoons are good, theganges overflows and his crop is marooned. Further upstream of Ganges, in the Garhwal hills of Uttarakhand, the glaciers which fed the river system that supports almost 1/6th of humanity are fast disappearing.
The above case is not fiction. As we write this, the glacier that feeds the Ganges has receded to record levels. It is estimated that by the turn of the century, the Ganges will be a monsoon river rather than a perennial snow fed river.
Solution: The reality cannot be changed. But what is changed is this…in the fields of Norway and in Europe, the land will become more fertile. As the Ganges dries up, Industries shall rise up. With Nuclear Power, irrigating the north of the country is no longer impossible. Giant turbines generate enough electricity to move enough water that another Ganges can flow. Humanity will progress.
Case 2: The Hunt for Oil:
The northwest passage, the name given to the ocean link between north west atlantic and the pacific has been a holy grail for years as it has always been frozen. It is a jackpot as not only does it provide a short shipping passage from Europe to North America to Asia but more importantly for the black gold hidden under the ice cap.
Consequences:
One consequence will be the extinction of the Polar bears. But at the same time, huge riches will be available for man to use as he chooses. These resources will spur on a new phase of industrialisation of the frozen north.
Carbon Trading and Compulsory Emission Norms:
Carbon trading since its inception has been dogged by controversy. Still in its initial years, it has been seen more as a licence to pollute than as a real method of stopping emissions. While the carbon credits were supposed to be used to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere, in reality, this has not occurred due to the extremely generous initial grants given by the governments to business.
Another huge problem is that countries with large natural reserves of forests are not properly credited for their role, which in turn distorts the market.
However, these are unfortunately only peripeheral to our view. We believe that while regulation should be maintained for pollution control and safety, competitive markets should drive the product manufactured. Carbon Credits distort this, and reward inefficiency.
Predictions of Disaster: Reverend Malthus
The key point that has been made is that humanity has begun to eat up its reserves of precious minerals and energy. Eventually, we will reach a critical stage where we can no longer support ourselves and will face extinction. This was first postulated by Reverend Malthus, who pointed out that population grew geometrically, while resources could only grow at an arithmetic rate.
However, over the last century, his predictions have not come true. Most spectacularly, a wager was placed between the leading biologists and economists of the 1970’s on the future prices of commodities. Malthusians believed that the prices would go up continuously due to greater demand, while economists pointed out that the increased prices would lead to innovation, which would lower prices once again.
The Result:
After 20 years, in 1990, the prices were verified against the 1070 prices. The Real prices of each of the commodities given was lower than it was in 1970, thereby debunking the Malthusians.
In our opinion, this is no chance. Innovation means that new resources are discovered or new materials that improve human progress are made. For every challenge we face, ingenuity has found a solution.
Indian Scenario: What should we do?
In conclusion, the authors would like to put out an optimistic view of the future. While we do not ask India to ignore climate change, the first obligation is to uplift India’s poor and bring lead them out of their current hand to mouth existence. To sacrifice midnights’ children to save some uncertain future would be a cruel slap in the face of our “tryst with destiny”





