Godly cash flows Sunday, Mar 15 2009 

People think that the credit crunch is a creation of the 21st century. However, like the religious fundementalists say, all things are there in the scriptures. The Gods of India have a practical example of how individuals with low credit ratings are forced to accept loan terms which are frankly usurious. In contrast, we shall also see how a well managed fiscal plan makes living comfortably.

Our tale begins with Mr. Venkateshwara, a young god with a great deal on his hands, but not much hard cash to his name. One fine day, he finds this young lady and decides to marry her. But the young lady is not content with a simple court wedding. After all, this is a god’s wedding, and must be celebrated with the pomp and ceremony it delivers. So, Mr. Venkatashwara goes to Kuber Bank, a closely held firm controlled by its namesake, and requests a personal loan for marriage expenses.

Now, Kuber takes one look at the impecunious Venkateshwara (also called Balaji), and decides that this young man is what would be called sub-prime. And not only is he sub-prime, he also wishes to use this loan on a mere consumption expenditure rather than investment purposes. Automatically, the interest amount is now increased appropriately by rating the borrowers risk accordingly. Venkateshwara’s repayment philosophy also seems a bit dubious. Based upon this wedding, he intended to set up a temple where people could worship him, and thereby pay off his debt.

Well, to cut a long story short, due to low regulation, Kuber bank did make the loan to this sub-prime borrower, albeit at an interest rate that he considered was appropriate for such a high risk loan. As it turned out, Mr. Venkata’s temple was a spectacular commercial success, raking in over Rs. 500 crores a year (approximately INR 5 Billion).

But that is not quite enough. From the records that mythology provides us, this only counts as payment towards the interest portion, so that Mr. Venkateshwara stays out of the term “Stressed Asset”! So Mr. Venkateshwara, inspite of having fantastic cash flows is still indebted. If records are to be believed, he will only be able to pay it off at the end of the universe itself!

On the other hand, about a 1000 kilometres away, we have the example of Mr. Siddivinayak. An astute god, based out of India’s commercial capital, Mumbai, he has access to the finest financial consultants (the ones who believe that cash is king) in the world. Having been exposed to the business world’s ups and downs, he maintains a low level of financial leverage, ensuring that his debts to the Kuber Bank are always promptly paid off. As a result, although his revenues from his temple are at a comparitively paltry Rs. 50 Crores, he is comfortably in cash.

So there ends this lesson from mythology.

Oil Prices–Price Elasticity Friday, Mar 13 2009 

Well…my last serious post on oil prices can be found here. Back then, oil was at $80 a barrel. Since then, oil went up to $147 and is now at the mid forties after dropping all the way down to $30. Does economics explain this phenomenon? Well, lets have a go with that most amazing of tools, hindsight.

The total demand drop from 2006 to today ranges between 2 and 2.5% . Assuming that the predictors were expecting a gain of 1.2% yoy (a reasonable prediction), the notional demand drop would then be about 5%.

At the same time,  production has increased by about 1.5% over the same period.

In this period, oil prices have risen to $140 a barrell from about $40 and have come back down to about $40 a barrell. Can conventional price Elasticity explain this?

Even assuming the widest variations in demand and supply, we have about a 6% variation in demand and supply. This ^% variation has led to a price change of almost 300%. This would mean that demand and price have a multiple of 50. By my previous calculations, the multiple  was closer to 10 than 50.

So economics does not seem to completely explain this massive change in price. But what if the underlying multiple of 10 was also leveraged?

The theory behind perfect marketplaces is that more players there are, the more clearly the price in the marketplace would be provided. However, in oil, the actual deliveries are fairly small compared to the speculators who trade in oil contracts. In theory, these speculators are supposed to provide liquidity to the market thereby enabling it to find true price without distortions introduced by large market participants.

The problem here is that sometimes speculators themselves distort the market. In a bull market,  every speculator went long on oil, which distorted market price and ensured that the real price soared well above the price that the oil sheikh needed to purchase his private A-380.

However, the reverse also occured. When the bubble burst, the speculators had leveraged their positions, and now had to sell at any price in order to exit the market. This led to an equally dramatic price drop which has seen oil drop back down to $40 a barrell again.

Of course not all of this is due to the evil speculators. The US Dollar has been appreciating against almost every currency due to a flight to safety. A rising USD means that the Arab Sheikhs (who sell their oil in dollars) can now buy those English Football Clubs cheap. This also tends to drop the prices, and cannot be ignored.

Notes: The data is approximate but the base from which it was taken was the  International Energy Agency report of February 2009.  Any mistakes and incorrect assumptions are my own however.

Note 2: The strong dollar affects other things than prices of Football Clubs.  :)